My Experience With An Election for "Change" in 1970

As a Reminder I am covering these topics:

1. A Land of Opportunity
2. The Economy -1
3. The Economy -2
4. Energy
5. National Security
6. Education
7. My Experience with an Election for "Change" in 1970 (Current Topic)
8. The Change We Need
9. Growth, Challenges, and Choices

I want to share my experience and political lessons learned as a Missionary in Chile from July of 1970 to May of 1972. While I was on a mission to serve the Lord, one only had to observe the significance of the "Change". I hope that the similarities between that election and the current election do not provide a prediction of our future in the United States, but there are similarities

The Election

When I arrived in Chile in July 1970, there were three months left before presidential elections. At the time, Chile unlike most other Latin American countries had enjoyed the third most stable democracy in the western hemisphere only falling behind the USA and Canada. In Chile, presidential terms are for 6 years and you are not allowed to serve more than one term, and the political environment is made up of several parties, but there were 2 primary parties, with one that had been growing in recent years. Polls were not popular at the time. The way elections were conducted, the candidates would hold individual rallies, and throngs of supporters would show up in mass. The paper the next day would show a picture of the large crowds with a headline about how many people showed up.

With three primary candidates, Jorge Alessandri (a prior president) of the Conservative Party, Radomiro Tomic of the Christian Demotratic Party, and Salvadore Allende , a member of the Socialist Party and of the Unidad Popular coalition of Socialist and Communist parties, each day would show a different headline, 250,000 support Allende, 350,000 rally for Tomice, 500,000 show up for Alessandri. Having lost 3 prior elections by large margins, Salvadore Allende was not considered a likely winner.

His promises to the Chileans?

• Redistribution of wealth (Socialism) - Increased taxes of the wealthy and large business to redistribute to the poor
• nationalization or strong handed regulation of large-scale industries (notably copper mining and banking)
• Government administration of the health care system
• Government administration of the educational system
• A program of free milk for children
• A plan of land seizure and redistribution
• Improve the socio-economic welfare of Chile's poorest citizens
• Provide employment, either in the new nationalized enterprises or on public work projects

In accordance with Keynesian economics, he wanted to implement a massive redistribution of revenue by raising salaries and increasing public expenditure, through which the buying power of the population would increase and accordingly consumption in general. These measures would activate the idle capacity of the Chilean productive apparatus (which was relatively large) and generate a climate of prosperity. If this strategy paid off, it would have had the effect of strengthening the government’s position and allowing it to advance its revolutionary program much faster^[1]. Wikipedia

When the elections occurred, the Unidad Poplular hired buses and drove through the poorer areas of the country, both in the city as well as in the agricultural areas, and hauled people to the polls to vote. Meanwhile, many of those in the Conservative party, overconfident that they had the lead, did not show up to vote. The result:

On 4 September 1970, he obtained a narrow plurality of 36.2 percent to 34.9 percent over Jorge Alessandri, a former president, with 27.8 percent going to a third candidate (Radomiro Tomic) of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), whose electoral platform was similar to Allende's.

Wikipedia

The Aftermath

As a person on the street, I noticed the "Change" immediately. As a missionary, we talked to people every day. When I arrived in Chile, we were always invited in to peoples homes, and they were very friendly and open. Right after the elections, people were concerned and cautious. They were less friendly and guarded about what they would say.

Chilean presidents were allowed a maximum term of six years, which may explain Allende's haste to restructure the economy. Not only did he have a significant restructuring program organized (the Vuskovic plan), he had to make it a success if a Socialist successor to Allende was going to be elected. In the first year of Allende's term, the short-term economic results of Minister of the Economy Pedro Vuskovic's expansive monetary policy were favorable: 12% industrial growth and an 8.6% increase in GDP, accompanied by major declines in inflation (down from 34.9% to 22.1%) and unemployment (down to 3.8%). However, these results were not sustained, and in 1972, the Chilean escudo had runaway inflation of 140%. The average Real GDP contracted between 1971 and 1973 at an annual rate of 5.6% ("negative growth"); and the government's fiscal deficit soared while foreign reserves declined [Flores, 1997]. The combination of inflation and government-mandated price-fixing, together with the "disappearance" of basic commodities from supermarket shelves, led to the rise of black markets in rice, beans, sugar, and flour.^{[14] Wikipedia}

Additional actual observations:

• The Allende supporters among the poor, felt like they won the lottery and many immediately left the farms they worked or other jobs and invaded the cities, strutting like they were king. About a half a year into his term, these supporters would move into people homes, when they were away on vacation and take over possession. They would put a Chilean Flag in the window symbolizing they had nationalized the house. When the people came home, the government/police would not remove the intruders, thus backing up the nationalization.
• With threats to their businesses, many businessmen who were able, left the country to salvage their wealth, protect themselves, and take their businesses to other countries.
• The laborers, expecting promised wage increases, would strike against their employers. The employers, faced with higher wages and unprofitable business would close their doors. To protect the economy, the government nationalized the businesses, paying employees with printed money, because the expected revenues from business did not materialize.
• The government, nationalized the large businesses (the copper mines and the banking industry) that they said were making exorbitant profits. Production in the mines went down, and tax revenues declined as well. These are the reasons why they ran into run away inflation and negative growth.
• As production declined, shortages were found of many staples. During his second year, the rally's in the streets were now marches of mothers with pots and pans protesting shortages. Simple things like toilet paper were not available, and one had to make use of newspapers and magazine pages. Meat an milk were not to be found. If you could find Chicken you were very lucky.
• Cuba, the Soviet Union, and China all became great pals with Allende, but they could not / would not help sufficiently to make a transition.
• To gain control, newspapers and radio stations were forced to close.
• Every week, if not every day, opposition members of press, government, etc would be attacked, and frequently killed.

A Necessary End

There were rumors of a possible coup since at least 1972; in 1973, partly due to Allende's economic policies, partly as a result of the rapidly declining price of copper (Chile's main export), but especially because of lock-outs and sabotage by factory owners, the economy took a major downturn. By September, high inflation (508% for the entire year) and shortages had plunged the country into near-chaos.^[23]

On 29 June 1973, a tank regiment under the command of Colonel Roberto Souper surrounded the presidential palace (La Moneda) in an unsuccessful coup attempt known as the Tanquetazo.^[26] On 9 August, General Carlos Prats was made Minister of Defense, but this decision proved so unpopular with the military that, on 22 August, he was forced to resign not only this position but his role as Commander-in-Chief of the Army; he was replaced in the latter role by General Augusto Pinochet.^[25]

In August 1973, a constitutional crisis was clearly in the offing: the Supreme Court publicly complained about the government's inability to enforce the law of the land and, on 22 August, the Chamber of Deputies (with the Christian Democrats now firmly uniting with the National Party) accused Allende's government of unconstitutional acts and called on the military ministers to assure the constitutional order. Among other things, Allende was accused of disregarding the courts, attempting to restrict freedom of speech, and supporting unauthorized seizures of farms and private industry for the purpose of establishing state control of the economy. The Chamber of Deputies also attacked Allende for seeking to "establish a totalitarian system absolutely opposed to the representative system of government established by the Constitution."^[27]

In early September 1973, Allende floated the idea of resolving the crisis with a plebiscite. His speech outlining such a solution was scheduled for 12 September, but he was never able to deliver it. On September 11 1973, the Chilean military staged a coup against Allende. Wikipedia

A year before, this all occurred, I could see that there would be a military coup. The people were in misery, and with a member family who was a Colonel in the Army, I could sense that there were things in motion.

How Does our Situation Compare

I can't turn to wikipedia for this part, as history has not yet been written. However, while I hope and pray that history is not an indicator, I believe the comparisons are similar enough provide at least an indication of the possible "Change" we may be prepared to endure.

Promised Change - What People Want to Hear to Get Power to Do His Program

Allende 1970	Obama 2008
Government administration of the health care system - Nationalized Healthcare	Healthcare for all: - His current Plan is to Negotiate (force) Insurance Companies to: Lower Costs Accept Pre-existing conditions Force employers to pay a insurance fee into a pool to help fund if they do not provide insurance Provide the option for employees to buy into a Government Program Likely Result: Obama has stated publicly on more than one occasion that his goal is a single payer healthcare plan - Nationalized Healthcare / not private insurance Once the Government is involved, they take a hand in all facets of the program, including when and who you can see for healthcare. Insurance companies will withdraw due to lack of profitability Government will bail out program - Nationalized Healthcare
Government Ownership Large Business and Banking Nationalized biggest industries Copper Mines Banking Bailed out / Nationalized many Factories Took over ownership of many estates and private properties Business struggled under government ownership and false economy, many moved to other countries.	Banking and Housing is already on verge of collapse due to liberal credit programs created and protected by his party The Bail out program initially placed on the table by him and his party took ownership. The current president recently initiating steps in bail out to buy interests in banks with guarantees that Banks can buy stock back. Currently in precarious position, that a Government that wanted to could trigger the Nationalization of the industry. Seriously critical of Big Business, and wanting to impose prohibitive taxes, and impose stiff regulations. (Energy, Insurance, Banking, Pharmaceutical) Likely Result: The Party with the desire and power (presidency & congress) could push the Housing Market and Banking Industry into situation where the government "has to" bail it out again and take complete ownership. Businesses will move to other countries taking jobs with them, if the environment prohibits them from surviving and competing.
Government administration of the educational system Government control of curriculum (including propaganda)	Government administration of the education system Obama says reasonable things here More money to education Keep better teachers / remove poor teachers Improve math and sciences Charter schools Democrat and Obama's background and history show a different view Tight relationships with Teachers Union Protects the teachers (good and bad) Fights against competitive practices (that make schools compete for quality for $) like vouchers Fight against standardized testing saying the must teach to the test Incorporates liberal propaganda because loyalty to liberalism protects their union. Funds other liberal agenda items like the California Teacher's union did yesterday by contributing funds in support of Gay Marriage. (what does that have to do with education?) Experience in Chicago with Annenberg Challenge, Woods Fund, and Bill Ayers as they funded education programs that failed to achieve improvements in math and science, but which "are explicit about the need to indoctrinate public school children in the belief that America is a racist, militarist country and that the capitalist system is inherently unfair and oppressive."

Oblivious Citizenry

Allende 1970

Obama 2008

In 1970 the citizens of Chile understood the views of Allende, but with the rallies showing little support, and he having lost by large margins in 3 prior elections, they did not believe he would win. It is for this reason that many took the election lightly and did not show up. To the poor, his message was strong and full of nice sounding promises that were based on ideology rather than economic principle. They were oblivious to the 'Change" that was to come.

In 2008, the citizens of the US are oblivious in another way. Many carry a guilt, about the racism of the past, and if there is a qualified black candidate, they are willing to overlook a few problems. The main stream press, who has the most citizen ear share in the rapid pace of life today, for what ever reason protects him from any attacks by labeling legitimate questions and objections as smears. Any questions about his background are labeled as racist, and spun to the public as unfair questions A large number of shallow citizens place value on how the candidate appears or sounds, but don't ask any further questions about the reality of what he says. Taking advantage of the situation, Obama and the machine with the press included: Eloquently craft their message to be appealing to groups The Poor Not only are you not going to have to pay taxes we will pay you a credit We are going to give you health care We are going to give you loans and cheap housing The middle class (they were not strong here before so they have expanded their message) We are going to give you a tax break We are going to reduce the cost of healthcare We are going to create more jobs We are going to pay for your education You don't have to do anything because we will take care of it for you. It doesn't matter that they can't do all of this, or that if you looked into his past, which is protected, his ideology and that of all of his associations is completely different from his statements and is focused on Socialism, which shaped his life and associations from his college years in Hawaii all the way through his rise to the Senate. Because of the Race Card and Press Support in Protecting Obama's past what we don't know about him is much more than what we do know. He still has not produced his birth certificate, and there is significant evidence that he is not a citizen. He has not produced any of the records from Columbia University or other sources, which are protected unless he releases them. Might they also indicate that he is not a US Citizen? He has NO administrative experience on his resume other than claiming to manage his own campaign, but that does not bother anyone because of his charisma. The 20 year experience in the Chicago community is protected information

Economic Plan

Allende 1970

Obama 2008

Allendes's objective was to achieve a transition to socialism by democratic means. This would involve a combined political and economic program aimed at wresting control of the economy out of the hands of a small elite and placing it in the hands of the state. It would then be easier to dismantle the various institutions connected with Western capitalism. In accordance with Keynesian economics, he wanted to implement a massive redistribution of revenue by raising salaries and increasing public expenditure, through which the buying power of the population would increase and accordingly consumption in general. These measures would activate the idle capacity of the Chilean productive apparatus (which was relatively large) and generate a climate of prosperity. Wikipedia In other words, he would drive the Economy from the Bottom, by increasing salaries. This would require unionization and pressure on business to do so. The idea being that wealth would flow up as people had money to spend and drive the economy. The Result: Businesses could not be profitable thus they either closed up, moved out, or were nationalized Government is very inefficient at running business Jobs were lost, or the government had to make up jobs and pay with printed money resulting in hyper inflation, a weak currency, and severe economic contraction or recession. Shortages of product on the shelves, due to lack of production.

Obama's unstated, but (thinly veiled) obvious objective is to transition to socialism by democratic means. His plan is to directly re-distribute wealth by taking it (significantly increasing taxes) from anyone / business making more than $250,000, and by removing tax loopholes, and then re-distributing the wealth by lowering taxes (supposedly) and giving rebates to the remainder. He says 95% of tax payers will get a tax reduction. Only 40% pay taxes today, resulting in direct distribution of wealth (welfare) to the remainder in the form of rebates (welfare) for doing nothing. Obama says that only 5% of Small Business fall in that range. In reality more the 50% fall in to that range, and make up the biggest segment of employers in the Economy. His plan is based on the premise that if the people have money in their pockets, they will spend it and drive the economy from the bottom up, similar to the stimulus package. His plan is also to take away any tax breaks for companies that have workers overseas He promises to give a $3,000 credit to employers who add jobs that will cost them $50,000 to create, and if it made sense to create them they would anyway. Likely Result: Businesses will not be profitable and will reduce jobs Those in the higher tax brackets will either close up or move to a country where taxes are not prohibitive and labor is less expensive taking jobs with them. Remember, they operate in a global economy, the success means selling to people who can pay, and keeping cost low. In order to keep the economy running, more bail outs will be required effectively resulting in nationalization of industry Even with higher taxes, when the economy slows down it will result in lower revenue to run the state managed programs, resulting in a need to print money, resulting in hyper inflation, a weak currency, and severe economic contraction or recession Shortages of product on shelves, due to lack of production.

Class Politics and Ideology

Allende 1970

Obama 2008

There was never any question that about Allende's socialist agenda. He ran as a socialist with socialist ideas. He wanted to re-distribute the wealth to the poor by requiring the rich to pay higher wages, and by creating jobs through national programs and industry.

Obama is running a thinly disguised campaign, because if he ran as a socialist, he could not win the vote, but if someone looks past the charisma his ideology is the same. The rich are bad, and the wealth should be re-distributed to the poor, without them earning it. Government is to take more control, by nationalizing the medical industry in steps and extending that process to other industries that will be forced to the brink by governmental intervention and restrictions. Obama in his recent debate, when talking about his relationship with William Ayers, brushed it off as if it were nothing. Obama was 8, when William Ayers was a terrorist, and they were on a couple of boards together. Then when asked who he would have on his cabinet, he named a few people that no one would find offensive, and then said i.e. these are the people who have shaped my opinions. We are now to believe, that these people who he as worked with only in the last two years, while running for office have shaped his opinions more than those who he has worked with, who he has supported, and who have supported him over the last 20+ years? Until they became political liabilities, his associations and support has gone to groups in Chicago and elsewhere that have funded, advised, promoted, and shaped the community there. He brushes off lightly the the 20 years of his life that were spent in Chicago working in the Community with the Annenberg Challenge, Woods Fund, William Ayers, Reverend Wright, etc all of whom spew hatred for the United States as a capitalistic society and demonstrate reverse racism by teaching to hate the white society, and clamor for socialistic change. The William Ayers Plan - Schoolchildren Barack Obama & William Ayers

My Predictions IF Obama and Democrats have a Majority - Based on Experience

As a person who loves the United States of America and the liberties and opportunities it provides, as well as the benefits it brings to the rest of the world through our protection and our benevolence, I am afraid that if Obama and a Liberal Congress are elected to office, we will see one of two things.

1. A slow implementation of Nationalized Medicine and Tax Increases to lull the citizenry into a false sense of progress
2. A rapid implementation of his 95% tax redistribution of wealth plan and nationalized medicine to assure that we make the move quickly and that it is hard to take back.

As in Chile in 1970, you will see in this case the blacks celebrating and feeling empowered to the point of being at the least obnoxious and more likely practicing the things they have been taught, at least in the Chicago communities to the streets.

I do not believe that most Americans, when they realize what they have elected, will want to keep it. Some may even want to take the correction in their own hands, which would result in instant violence. In any case. if the bulk of Americans rise up and try to reverse the socialized situation, there will be worse riots than we had in the 1960's and possibly civil war. It will take 20 years, a whole generation, at a minimum to get American back to what it once was, if it ever happens.

Be prepared, pay off your debts, learn to be comfortable with less, keep your families close, stand in holy places, turn to your Father in Heaven, have Faith.